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The Balance of Power in the Russo-Ukraine War / Steve Jermy
https://www.natowatch.org/sites/defau...
Topic: Possible Peace Talks in Istanbul and U.S. Involvement
Trump’s Comments: Former President Donald Trump expressed optimism about potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine scheduled for Thursday in Istanbul. He said he might even attend if he believes it would help progress negotiations.
Location and Participants: While both Russia and Ukraine may send representatives, experts doubt both leaders (Putin and Zelensky) will be present. Zelensky has challenged Putin to attend, but it's seen as unlikely due to the lack of pre-negotiation groundwork.
Contrasting Demands:
Zelensky insists on a 30-day unconditional ceasefire before talks.
Putin has rejected any preconditions, calling for immediate direct talks while military operations continue.
Balance of Power: Analysts argue that Russia holds the military advantage and has no incentive to agree to a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to regroup. They believe Ukraine and its Western backers lack the leverage to force Russia into concessions.
Media and Diplomatic Spin:
Western figures like former U.S. Ambassador Kurt Volker are accused of misrepresenting Russia's stated grievances.
Critics argue that dismissing Russia’s historical concerns (e.g., NATO expansion) contributes to the diplomatic impasse.
Putin’s Approach: Seen as strategic and measured, emphasizing diplomacy without halting military action. He’s portrayed as playing a multi-board geopolitical “chess game” effectively.
Western Strategy Questioned: Commentators suggest that Western leaders may be promoting unrealistic expectations, focusing more on messaging than power realities.
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